RIVIAN: Ready Player 2

High Level Investment Case

Private Credit Investment Opportunity

I’m helping my wife raise some cash for her business. The goal is to use the proceeds for growth capital and consolidate existing equipment loans.

I’m investing up to $125K into it myself.

I thought I’d mention it here in case anyone is interested in learning more.

Background:

  • My wife runs a successful Optometry Practice in Fort Worth.

  • It’s well established and has been around since the 1950s.

  • Since she bought it in 2018, she’s grown revenue from $250K to $1M.

  • We’re now looking to optimize our capital structure and invest in the growth of a Med Spa we opened in the same location last year.

If you’d like to learn more about this, feel free to reach out and I can answer any question / share more details including financials etc.

Investment Details:

  • We’ve been offered $600K from a Private Equity Firm, but we don’t need (or want) that much. A smaller raise gives us flexibility without over-leveraging.

  • Total Raise: $200-300K (I’m putting in up to $125K)

    • Seeking remaining $75K-$175K

    • Minimum Investment: $30K

  • Potential Structure: Interest-only loan, 11-12% interest rate, balloon repayment in 2-3 years

  • Security: Can be secured with a lien on business/commercial building.

  • Use of Funds:

    • Use ~$80K for growth capital for the Med Spa

    • Use rest to consolidate equipment loans and reduce debt service (From ~$17K/month down to ~$10K/month).

  • Terms Open to discussion

Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming…

Rivian (RIVN): Ready Player Two

As you know, I am a fan of the Coffee Can Portfolio approach to investing. The idea is simple: Try to find the best stocks you can and let them sit for years. You incur no costs with such a portfolio, and it is simple to manage.

I’ve been testing out the alpha version of my product called The Coffee Can Club, where I share my coffee can portfolios along with their investment rationale.

A few months ago, I shared my high level thoughts on $RIVN ( ▲ 26.64% ) , a company that I believe is on its way to becoming a multi-bagger.

Rivian, still just a $22 Billion market cap company, is up about 40% since I first mentioned it to early subscribers. We expressed this bet via long term call options, which are now up over 80%.

Consider joining the waitlist for when I launch the product more broadly:

Here are the high-level thoughts I shared on Sep 23 2025

  • This is a seed investment (Defined Here).

  • We are trying to see whether Rivian will be able to successfully launch their R2 SUV, and cement their spot as the number 2 player in the EV market behind Tesla.

  • Their R1 model was very well received. In fact, it is the best selling EV SUV with a > $70,000 price point. In California and Washington state, it is actually the best selling SUV period, with a > $70,000 price point.

  • That said, one of the biggest challenges for an EV maker is bringing affordable models to market. And by affordable, we’re talking about a starting price under $50,000. Nearly 70% of all U.S. car buyers are looking for a vehicle under this price threshold for their next purchase

  • As a result, similar to Tesla, RIVN is now looking to move down market to reach a broader customer base. They’re targeting a base model price around $45K.

  • This is a big deal.

  • Because the R1 price point is so high, the market is small and as a result, Rivian’s growth rates are also small. But, with the lower $45K price point, a good launch can change that.

  • I believe consumers don’t have a lot of good choices when it comes to EVs. Rivian has the opportunity to fill that gap.

  • In fact, my dad purchased a Model Y recently, and I must say it was a terrible buying experience.

    • When you call a Tesla location, the call gets routed to a central call center. You can’t actually talk to the local store salesperson you spoke with. In order to do so, you have the make the trek down there physically (wtf).

    • My dad had an international driver’s license. He had called in to ask whether such a license would be ok to take a car for a test drive. He was assured it was. However, upon arrival at his test drive appointment, he was told tough luck, he can’t go for a test drive. He basically made an hour-long trek to the Tesla store for nothing.

  • Most importantly, there are many potential catalysts on the horizon:

    • The R2 launch.

    • Actual progress on autonomous driving in 2026. (They recently had the Rivian AI & Autonomy Day on Dec 11 2025.)

    • Rollout of Rivian’s tech across the Volkswagen fleet. VW has agreed to adopt Rivian’s tech across their brands, including Porsche. This speaks volumes about how good Rivian’s tech is, and how hard it is to replicate for legacy automakers. This has the potential to generate billions in revenue.

  • The stock has gone nowhere for a while. It is still down over 90% from its highs in 2021. If Rivian can have a good launch, capitalize on these catalysts, and demonstrate an increase in growth rates, the market is likely to pay up for that.

If you want access to future Coffee Can stock picks, join the waitlist for when I launch the Coffee Can Club more broadly:

It’s interesting that despite the recent price increase, Rivian is still only 16% of the market caps of General Motors and Ford, the number 2 and 3 auto-manufacturers in the US.

Rivian is well positioned to be the number 2 player in this market, behind Tesla.

If they can get the R2 launch right, and build some momentum, RIVN could be a big winner in 2026 and 2027.